VaticinusWhat is becoming technically possible
Papers, preprints, clinical trials, patents, citations, and lab-to-market signals.
The data layer behind the calls
Vaticinus maps the evidence behind a forecast before the model takes a side. The point is not a big corpus number. It is checking the right parts of the world.
What the system checks
Every forecast is routed through the evidence that should move first if the thesis is true. These are the checks, not a vanity count.
What cannot scale on demand
Trade flows, mineral data, component capacity, shipping routes, and supplier concentration.
What is actually getting built
Permits, interconnection queues, project filings, land records, and construction evidence.
Where the market has already priced it
Public filings, prices, funding rounds, procurement language, and capex commitments.
Where rules move the constraint
Export controls, sanctions, subsidies, procurement rules, and licensing bottlenecks.
Whether the thesis is becoming true
Resolved events, price anchors, production data, disclosure changes, and kill signals.
How the data changes the call
The substrate is a constraint map. It tells the forecaster where the bottleneck lives, who owns it, whether supply can answer price, and what observation would make the claim fail.
No prompt-only answers
The answer has to touch source data before it becomes a forecast.
No stale evidence
Dates matter because forecasts are only real before the outcome.
No unpriced edge
If the market already sees the constraint, the call is not useful.
The source families
The same call may need scientific evidence, supply-chain evidence, market evidence, and policy evidence on one page.
papers and preprintspatents and assigneespermits and docketsfilings and disclosurestrade and customsmarket pricespolicy and sanctionsclimate and earth systemsclinical and health datapublic forecast boardsentity and ownership graphsresolved outcomes
Data checks are evidence inputs, not investment advice.
Work with us
Dated calls on the constraints in your book.
Built for desks that own these questions: sector funds in the fuel cycle, critical minerals, and grid power; pod PMs and sector analysts; commodity research desks; family offices with resource books. If uranium conversion, rare-earth magnets, grid steel, or power semiconductors sit in your book, there is already a dated call on the record about it. For the positions you size, we point the engine at your coverage: where the binding constraint is moving, whether the move is priced, and a probability with an interval, a resolution date, and the one thing that would prove it wrong.
Founding subscribers get the running record of dated calls, a quarterly deep dive on their sector, a chat seat, and a direct line: $5,000 a year, locked at the founding rate. The record is young and we say so. Every call is sealed at publish and scored in public when it comes due, so what you judge is the record, not the pitch, and the price rises as the record resolves. The chat is free and always on if you want to test the engine first.
Operators get a different door. If a campus, sourcing, or qualification decision hangs on power, permits, equipment, or export permission, we run a 10-15 day decision sprint: map the serial gates between you and the deadline, grade which ones are evidenced and which are assumed, and set the dated signals and kill conditions before capital commits. Sanitized specimens available on request.
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Thesis
A dated, falsifiable thesis
One sub-industry, the binding constraint named, a probability with an interval, and the date it resolves.
Evidence
The data layer behind it
Research, patents, trade flows, and a live price channel, so the call rests on a constraint you can actually measure.
Watch
A kill-criterion you can watch
Every call names what would make it wrong and the signal to watch for it, so you can track the position as it plays out.
