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SEVEN NEW OPEN CALLS, DATED JULY 2026

The forecasts

Dated calls, scored when they resolve. 67 forward calls are sealed at publish with a kill criterion; the nearest come due in 2026. Open any of them for the sources, refute notes, and full argument.

Browse the forecasts
Browse the forecasts

Scored so far

13 of our Metaculus forecasts have resolved; 7 scored as binaries so far, Brier 0.06. Hits and misses sit in the same list. That is the point of a sealed record.

NOWill Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?2%Brier 0.00
NOWill over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?2%Brier 0.00
NOWill the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 208%Brier 0.01
NOWill any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extrem12%Brier 0.01
NOWill at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before Augu16%Brier 0.03
YESWill shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before Sept73%Brier 0.07
NOWill Caitlin Clark win any awards at the 2026 ESPYs?55%Brier 0.30

Resolving by 2028

35 calls across 6 research notes, soonest first. Each row gives the claim, resolution date, and the public read. Open the PDF for the exact scored clause.

World Permission Gate PDF
permission-gated physical capacity / public proof board

World Permission Gate

The live edge is not a giant pile of themes. It is the discipline that rejects unscored claims and rewrites them into observable permission gates: who can secure port insurance, fertilizer policy proof, IMF...

12 callsFull PDF
WG1Black Sea grain risk reprices through Odesa uptime, the operational throughput signal that moves the price more than naval headlines do.46%2026-12-31
WG2Gulf fertilizer stress turns into named food-policy actions.52%2026-09-30
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WG3Food/fuel import stress shows up first in IMF review language.55%2027-12-31
WG4AI campuses get sorted by source-grade energization evidence.58%2028-12-31
WG5Data-center power access starts pricing like reserved grid capacity.60%2028-12-31
WG6Magnet license delays become a public schedule constraint.48%2027-12-31
WG7EU AI procurement starts buying audit evidence and shifts spend away from AI policy decks.46%2027-12-31
WG8Catastrophic cyber risk moves toward formal federal response design.34%2028-06-30
WG9EU carbon-border rules turn emissions data into a procurement credential.50%2027-09-30
WG10GLP-1 access shifts from supply shortage to payer-controlled workflows.52%2028-12-31
WG11Water permits become part of data-center expansion approval.48%2028-12-31
WG12High-grade scrap starts becoming regulated industrial feedstock.50%2027-12-31
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Direction Is Priced. The Dated Number Is Not. PDF
any area, wide open across all industries

Direction Is Priced. The Dated Number Is Not.

The loudest shared shift across this board is that the binding constraint has moved off the demand narrative and onto a specific inelastic supply input or a fixed-date administrative step, while the market has...

7 callsFull PDF
P1Ultra-pure (6N) helium holds at or above 2x its February-2026 pre-strike price through 30 June 2027, because Ras Laffan helium is byproduct-locked to LNG Trains 4/6 that QatarEnergy's own CEO says take 3-5 years to rebuild, with no storage and no strategic reserve to bridge the gap. P=0.71.71%2027-06-30
P2The 2021-22 floating-rate multifamily bridge vintage breaks the apartment soft-landing story: the Trepp multifamily CMBS delinquency rate prints above 9.0% in at least one month by 2027-09-30, from 7.71% in April 2026 (up from 6.94% in January and 4.62% a year earlier). P(clause) = 60%.60%2027-09-30
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P3By 2027-12-31, at least one branded GLP-1 from Lilly or Novo is publicly listed at a FULL maintenance therapeutic dose for $199/month or less cash self-pay (ex-insurance, ex-Medicare). The threshold is measured at the maintenance-dose floor that patients pay to stay on the drug, which sits above the discounted intro-dose teaser.58%2027-12-31
P4The "GPU collateral is money-good" framing cracks: by 2027-12-31, at least one GPU-backed or AI-datacenter debt facility is downgraded a notch, OR a neocloud carrying over $500M of debt restructures or files Chapter 11. P = 58%.58%2027-12-31
P5EU virgin R-32 wholesale price exceeds €50/kg by end-2027 (from €25-40/kg mid-2026) as the Jan 1, 2027 F-gas quota step and GWP-150 equipment bans cut legal HFC supply against inelastic service demand.52%2027-12-31
P6LME 3-month nickel prints above $20,000/t at least once before end-2027 as a Gulf sulfur / sulfuric-acid squeeze throttles Indonesian HPAL and flips the battery-nickel segment into deficit, breaking the surplus-caps-nickel consensus. Currently ~$16,900 (May-2026 high ~$19,600). P=0.40, resolves 2027-12-31.40%2027-12-31
P7Standard-grade cobalt metal prints a monthly average at or above $75,000/t (about $34/lb) for at least one calendar month between 2026-09-01 and 2027-12-31, as the DRC's hard 96,600 t/yr export cap forces a second leg higher once the ex-DRC refined-cobalt stockpile that held H1-2026 prices flat near $56,000/t is drawn down.34%2027-12-31
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Three Commodity Reversals Where the Fix Is Already Paid For PDF
any area, wide open across all industries

Three Commodity Reversals Where the Fix Is Already Paid For

Our house view across this board is simple. In three separate commodity chains, the supply response the bulls are betting against has already been set off by a specific, dated event, and the market has not...

3 callsFull PDF
P1Chinese polysilicon stays below cash cost through 2027 because SAMR banned the supply cut the bulls priced70%2027-12-31
P2DDR5 reverses by end-2027: a representative mainstream module (16Gb-class DDR5) falls at least 35% from its H1-2026 spot/contract peak by 2027-12-3145%2027-12-31
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P3A nickel surplus headline hides a battery-grade nickel sulfate squeeze: by 2027-06-30 the sulfate premium over LME 3-month nickel (Ni-contained) widens past $4,500/t as the Indonesian acid shortage curtails MHP41%2027-06-30
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Qualified AI Memory Allocation PDF
ai-memory-storage

Qualified AI Memory Allocation

AI is repricing the data layer, but the remaining edge is no longer 'NAND is scarce' or 'HBM is sold out.' Those are now public, crowded, and easy to overtrade. The harder call is whether AI buyers can secure...

6 callsFull PDF
P1Enterprise SSD allocation becomes the first storage gate AI operators feel.81%structural read2027-12-31
P2Client hardware pays a memory tax; broad empty shelves are not the core call.76%structural read2027-06-30
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P3The real DRAM test is whether tightness spreads beyond HBM.80%structural read2027-12-31
P4Qualified SSD control-stack capacity becomes the post-NAND allocation gate.68%structural read2027-12-31
P5Reservation economics are real only if filings broaden beyond one hard proof point.79%structural read2027-06-30
P6Storage becomes performance-path infrastructure only after measured production proof.60%structural read2028-06-30
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Time-to-Energize: Evidence Gate PDF
AI infrastructure, grid interconnection, high-voltage execution, and...

Time-to-Energize: Evidence Gate

Power scarcity for AI is now consensus. The underwritten question is narrower: whether a named AI campus, HVDC line, co-located generation deal, or large-load interconnection can energize on the schedule...

1 callsFull PDF
P1Time-to-energize evidence becomes the underwriting gate for AI infrastructure.79%structural read2027-12-31
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After AI: where the constraint moves when intelligence leaves the screen PDF
what comes next after AI

After AI: where the constraint moves when intelligence leaves the screen

The shared shift is that AI stops being mainly a model market and becomes a physical deployment market. The obvious layers, GPUs, frontier labs, generic agents, and benchmark wins, are no longer where the edge...

6 callsFull PDF
P1The AI frontier moves from model access to firm-power siting.52%2028-12-31
P2Physical AI's bottleneck is certified deployment, which binds well before the supply of robot bodies does.46%2028-12-31
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P3Autonomous science shifts the bottleneck from model discovery to experimental throughput.44%2029-12-31
P4The consumer AI interface moves to always-on edge devices, gated by thermals, battery, sensors, and privacy.43%2028-12-31
P5Biomanufacturing's bottleneck is scale-up, which binds long after AI organism design is solved.41%2030-12-31
P6Agentic AI's scarce layer becomes authority, auditability, and rollback.48%2028-06-30
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Long-horizon structural

46calls resolving 2030 to 2040, at limits physics and demography have already set. These grade the thesis, not this year's record; read them as research with a date attached.

The World After AI: intelligence gets permission to act PDF
post-AI world / next big thing after AI

The World After AI: intelligence gets permission to act

The post-AI world is not defined by intelligence becoming scarce. It is defined by intelligence becoming cheap enough that the bottleneck moves to permission, coupling, and verification. The winning layer is...

8 callsFull PDF
P1Agent authority rails become the transaction network after AI.49%2031-12-31
P2Liability moves to the evidence recorder.51%2031-12-31
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P3Autonomous labs bottleneck on standards before autonomy.48%2031-12-31
P4Materials discovery becomes a qualification-data business.42%2035-12-31
P5Programmable-biology access becomes a licensed screening layer.46%2030-12-31
P6Human causal perturbation atlases become the drug-discovery scarce asset.34%2033-12-31
P7Grid stability replaces megawatts as the AI load gate.38%2033-12-31
P8AI campuses become heat-sink and water-rights assets.41%2032-12-31
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Where chip-supply rent moves next: eight inelastic nodes, six we'd back PDF
semiconductors and the chip supply chain (logic foundry, memory and...

Where chip-supply rent moves next: eight inelastic nodes, six we'd back

All six calls share one shape. Capital, tools, and wafer capacity can all be bought on a capex clock, but the real ceiling sits a layer or two below the priced story, at an input whose supply grows on a...

6 callsFull PDF
P1The ceiling on the AI-compute wafer build-out is not ASML, EUV source power, or fab shells. It is Zeiss SMT ion-beam-figuring throughput for EUV/High-NA projection mirror sets at one site in Oberkochen, Germany.52%2032-12-31
P2Senior yield and process-integration engineers with multi-node sub-5nm ramp experience are the input you cannot clone for ex-Taiwan leading-edge output through the 2030s. Capital and wafer capacity are fundable; a decade of hands-on ramp knowledge is not, and the rent moves to whoever holds that headcount.58%2033-12-31
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P3Ruthenium becomes the gating input for advanced-logic interconnects as copper hits its resistivity wall at sub-2nm pitches. Supply is hard-capped at roughly 30 tonnes per year as a platinum byproduct, with no primary mine to develop.40%2035-12-31
P4The constraint on the US/EU fab buildout is not capital or tools but the tiny, slow-to-certify pool of UHP process-piping welders and hookup fitters. Their scarcity makes the announced 2023-2030 leading-edge capacity schedule structurally undeliverable.52%2031-12-31
P5Enriched Si-28 isotope-separation cascade capacity becomes the gating substrate input for silicon-spin qubits and, if adopted, 3D-logic thermal relief. World supply sits at tens to low hundreds of kg/yr against a potential tons-per-year demand cliff by the early 2030s.34%2034-12-31
P6Multibeam mask-write throughput (IMS Nanofabrication, sole production vendor) becomes the gate on how many distinct High-NA AI-chip designs the industry can tape out per year by 2031.38%2031-12-31
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Above-Ground Bottlenecks: The Real Critical Minerals Crisis PDF
critical minerals

Above-Ground Bottlenecks: The Real Critical Minerals Crisis

The board converges on a structural shift away from geology as the binding constraint on critical minerals supply, toward inelastic human capital shortages (P1, P3), regulatory waste disposal caps (P2), and...

4 callsFull PDF
P1The US critical minerals boom stalls at the drill core: a shortage of Qualified Persons freezes project financing by 2031-2032-06-30
P2Rare earth oxide processing outside China will be capped by 2038 due to insolvable radioactive waste disposal permitting.-2038-06-30
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P3Western rare earth processing capacity will stall by 2034 due to a collapse in the pipeline of extractive metallurgists.-2034-12-31
P4Recycled Content Mandates Break the Battery Mining Boom-2035-01-01
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Where the Rent Moves Next: Four Binding Constraints Capital Has Not Yet Found PDF
any area, wide open across all industries

Where the Rent Moves Next: Four Binding Constraints Capital Has Not Yet Found

We see the same shift play out across all four calls, in four different physical systems. Capital and headlines crowd into the fast, fundable, capital-intensive layer (cable plants, copper mines, fusion...

4 callsFull PDF
P1By 2033 the binding constraint on Western copper has moved off the mine onto qualified non-China smelting and refining capacity. A sustained zero-to-negative treatment-charge regime forces ex-China smelters into structural contraction through the late 2020s, with at least two further Western or allied smelter closures or curtailments and a formal allied policy intervention to protect what smelting remains.55%2033-12-31
P2The grid and AI-datacenter buildout gets gated through the 2030s not by transformers, steel, or switchgear, but by the certified people who specify, set, and energize substations. Settings-grade protection-and-control relay engineers and journeyman transmission linemen cannot be minted fast enough, and the pipeline to make more of them is itself broken.46%2033-12-31
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P3Lithium-6 enrichment is the licensed chokepoint of the Western fusion fuel cycle, sitting upstream of the reactor itself. By 2034 a Western D-T pilot publicly names enriched Li-6 supply as the binding constraint, because the only scaled route (mercury COLEX) is banned under Minamata and live capacity sits only in Russia and China.42%2034-12-31
P4By 2032 the binding grid-connection constraint has moved downstream from cable manufacturing to marine installation, with the certified high-voltage offshore jointing crew as the deepest lock. At least three sanctioned HVDC links slip commissioning citing installation-vessel or jointing-crew availability (distinct from cable supply), and installation-slot lead times for HVDC campaigns exceed cable-plant lead times.46%2032-12-31
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Where the constraint moves next: six inelastic inputs the market has not priced PDF
cross-domain: critical materials, energy, biotech, AI-for-science,...

Where the constraint moves next: six inelastic inputs the market has not priced

Every call here runs on one mechanism. A downstream system scales fast while one upstream input is fixed by physics, chemistry, demography, or treaty, so the rent migrates onto the input that cannot answer a...

6 callsFull PDF
P1Hafnium is a byproduct-pinned trickle, now hostage to three inelastic buyers at once: nuclear control rods, advanced-node HfO2 gate dielectric, and single-crystal turbine-blade superalloys. China cut exports 90 percent in H2 2025 and the price tripled from $4,365 to roughly $13,115/kg by April 2026, but we think the long-horizon lock is the byproduct ratio itself, a constraint that outlasts the export headline.70%2032-12-31
P2Through 2034 the binding constraint on whole-mammalian-brain connectomes is not the electron microscope or the segmentation model. It is the human-proofread, error-audited gold reference set. Generative dense-segmentation auto-traces neurons faster every year but cannot self-certify, so verified ground-truth wiring becomes the scarce, slow-to-grow asset, with proofreading commanding the majority of every whole-brain project budget.46%2034-12-31
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P3By 2035 sulfuric acid, set by involuntary fossil-fuel desulfurization that shrinks as the world decarbonizes, becomes the explicitly cited binding gate on at least one HPAL battery-nickel or phosphate-fertilizer expansion, with a sustained real price step-change that outlasts the 2026 acute shocks and holds after they revert.46%2035-12-31
P4US transmission and HVDC buildout in the 2030s binds on the narrow EHV energizing-and-commissioning craft, a constraint distinct from the broadly-priced generic electrician shortage. The binding input is the journeyman and commissioning lead who can live-line and energize EHV lines and converter stations, and roughly half the utility line/substation cohort retires by 2030.46%2033-12-31
P5By 2034 the binding constraint on commercial DT fusion migrates one layer upstream of tritium onto blanket-grade enriched lithium-6, whose only proven industrial process (mercury COLEX) is treaty-banned and whose only current producers are Russia and China. The unpriced chokepoint is qualified, Minamata-compliant Li-6 enrichment capacity outside that duopoly, a layer the field overlooks while it watches plasma, magnets, and tritium.46%2034-12-31
P6By 2033 the binding constraint on the developed-world red-cell supply flips from donation willingness to donor-cohort biology, and O-negative red cells specifically enter chronic structural shortage, with at least one large national blood service (NHSBT, US Red Cross/ABC, or Japanese Red Cross) declaring recurring demographically-driven O-neg emergency or restricted-allocation status that is not attributable to a one-off event.46%2033-12-31
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Where the constraint migrates in biotech: finite atoms and human donors that capital cannot replicate PDF
biotech and human health (drug modalities and delivery,...

Where the constraint migrates in biotech: finite atoms and human donors that capital cannot replicate

We make the same structural argument six times. In each case a loud, well-funded boom is paying for the visible layer (curie count, fractionation plants, targeting ligands, reconditioning devices) while the...

6 callsFull PDF
P1Isotopically pure (Ac-227-free) Ac-225 from the finite Th-229/U-233 stockpile is the physics-locked binding constraint on targeted-alpha therapy through the 2030s, a tighter limit than raw curie count57%2032-12-31
P2By 2034, the binding constraint on the Ac-225 targeted-alpha-therapy boom is not the accelerator conversion step but the finite, non-manufacturable Ra-226 target feedstock that every accelerator route consumes, and the hot-cell capacity to fabricate, irradiate, and recover it.44%2034-12-31
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P3The binding constraint on the RLT boom migrates off the reactor onto kilogram-scale enriched stable-isotope feedstock (Yb-176, Zn-68, Gd-160) concentrated in Russian gas-centrifuge cascades, with Western rebuilds too gram-scale and too isotope-narrow to close the gap across the full therapeutic basket by 2032.38%2032-12-31
P4By 2035 the binding constraint on IVIG/SCIG supply is the human source-plasma donor base, a demographically and geographically concentrated input with no recombinant substitute; structural rationing or allocation tightens in at least two major wealthy markets, and the US share of world plasma collection stays above ~65 percent even as global IG demand grows materially.40%2035-12-31
P5Donor-derived human platelet lysate is the hidden, non-synthesizable feedstock that becomes the binding constraint on industrial-scale allogeneic cell therapy as the field migrates off FBS onto a supplement that can only be made from human blood donors -- a donor pool that is already chronically short for clinical transfusion.38%2033-12-31
P6GLP-1 mass adoption structurally degrades the deceased-donor organ supply: by 2033 the binding constraint in solid-organ transplantation becomes the vanishing pool of young, low-comorbidity SCD organs, forcing value to migrate onto organ reconditioning (normothermic machine perfusion) and xeno/engineered organ infrastructure, beyond what donor recruitment can address.38%2033-12-31
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The long-horizon tier PDF
cross-sector / 2032-2033

The long-horizon tier

Across all six the rent sits one layer below where capital is looking, on an input that cannot be expanded with money on the relevant timescale because the limit is an element, a reservoir, a human career, or...

6 callsFull PDF
L1The grid runs out of people before it runs out of steel60%2032-12-31
L2Helium-4 is the resource that leaves and does not come back52%2032-12-31
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L3Phosphorus is essential, substitute-free, and geographically captured50%2033-12-31
L4The robot demand that biology locks in place, beyond what adoption curves set45%2033-12-31
L5If carbon storage scales at all, the rent moves to the hole in the ground40%2032-12-31
L6The energy wall forces a change of substrate, going beyond better chips35%2033-12-31
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Where the Space Economy's Rent Goes Next: Six Physical Walls Cheap Launch Cannot Move PDF
space and the space economy (launch vehicles and propulsion,...

Where the Space Economy's Rent Goes Next: Six Physical Walls Cheap Launch Cannot Move

We see the same trade six times, and the market misreads it the same way each time. The funded, visible bottleneck in space is always transport: launch cost, cadence, landers, GPUs. Cheap reusable launch is...

6 callsFull PDF
P1Orbital compute does not hit a launch-cost wall or a power wall first. It hits a radiator-area wall. We think the binding constraint on space-based AI compute through the 2030s is deployable, micrometeoroid-survivable heat-rejection AREA per launched kilogram, governed by Stefan-Boltzmann T-to-the-fourth and a hard ~few-kg-per-square-meter panel-plus-fluid-loop mass floor that does not ride a learning curve. Multi-gigawatt orbital data centers are physically uncoverable this decade, and the rent goes to whoever owns large-area deployable-radiator and two-phase loop technology, ahead of whoever owns the GPUs or the launch.62%2034-12-31
P2Every kilowatt-class non-polar lunar surface asset through 2040 is gated by the 354-hour lunar night. We think the binding constraint is night-survival energy-storage mass per continuous watt, which forces fission surface power as the only viable route at useful power levels, and that route is single-sourced and schedule-fragile.70%2038-12-31
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P3By 2034, deep-space-band large-aperture antenna-hours are the binding supply constraint on missions past GEO, with demand already exceeding DSN capacity at peak and the deficit widening faster than new aperture can be fielded.62%2034-06-30
P4By 2035, the binding constraint on operating proliferated LEO is not tracking sensors or autonomous-maneuver software but the accuracy of thermospheric neutral-density forecasts, and the inelastic input gating that accuracy is real-time in-situ upper-atmosphere driver data from a tiny, non-redundant, government-funded sensor base with no commercial supply.52%2035-12-31
P5By 2035, iridium DOP-26 clad-vent-set fabrication at ORNL becomes the named gating constraint on US deep-space and lunar-surface nuclear power, binding tighter than the plutonium-238 fuel rate38%2035-12-31
P6By 2038, the binding constraint on proliferated-LEO throughput is the stratosphere's finite alumina-absorption capacity, forcing a regulated migration to non-aluminum demisable structures as the scarce, rent-capturing input.52%2038-12-31
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Not investment advice. These are dated forward calls; they get graded when the resolution date arrives.

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Dated calls on the constraints in your book.

Built for desks that own these questions: sector funds in the fuel cycle, critical minerals, and grid power; pod PMs and sector analysts; commodity research desks; family offices with resource books. If uranium conversion, rare-earth magnets, grid steel, or power semiconductors sit in your book, there is already a dated call on the record about it. For the positions you size, we point the engine at your coverage: where the binding constraint is moving, whether the move is priced, and a probability with an interval, a resolution date, and the one thing that would prove it wrong.

Founding subscribers get the running record of dated calls, a quarterly deep dive on their sector, a chat seat, and a direct line: $5,000 a year, locked at the founding rate. The record is young and we say so. Every call is sealed at publish and scored in public when it comes due, so what you judge is the record, not the pitch, and the price rises as the record resolves. The chat is free and always on if you want to test the engine first.

Operators get a different door. If a campus, sourcing, or qualification decision hangs on power, permits, equipment, or export permission, we run a 10-15 day decision sprint: map the serial gates between you and the deadline, grade which ones are evidenced and which are assumed, and set the dated signals and kill conditions before capital commits. Sanitized specimens available on request.

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Thesis
A dated, falsifiable thesis
One sub-industry, the binding constraint named, a probability with an interval, and the date it resolves.
Evidence
The data layer behind it
Research, patents, trade flows, and a live price channel, so the call rests on a constraint you can actually measure.
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A kill-criterion you can watch
Every call names what would make it wrong and the signal to watch for it, so you can track the position as it plays out.
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